The prolonged, steep downturn in housing continues to impact shipments of key kitchen and bath products – including cabinets and appliances – although forecasts are now calling for an improvement in housing conditions by the second quarter of next year. Among the statistics and forecasts released by government agencies, research firms and industry-related trade associations in recent weeks were the following:

Housing Starts & Sales

The latest surveys of home builders are revealing a substantial improvement in sales expectations for the next six months, according to David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. Noting that builders have been “pulling in the reins on new production,” Seiders projected a “stabilization” of new-home sales in the final quarter of 2008, and a steady recovery in housing by the second quarter of 2009. According to the latest available figures, housing starts continued to decline nationwide, as home builders continued to cut back on new construction in order to scale back inventories and help pave the way for market recovery, the Washington, DC-based NAHB said. In the meantime, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose in September for the first time in seven months, the trade association added.

Existing-Home Sales

The level of existing-home sales is expected to show little movement in the months ahead, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors, which reported last month that pending home sales are “oscillating month-to-month, with the long-term trend essentially flat.” Even with the latest pullback, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, “with dramatic local market differences continuing,” according to the Washington, DC-based NAR, which noted that there are “many ambiguities” in the housing market. “The outlook,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, “is very cloudy.”

Cabinet & Vanity Sales

Sales of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, impacted by the prolonged housing slump, tumbled again in August compared to the same month a year earlier, the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association said last month. According to the Reston, VA-based KCMA, manufacturers participating in the association’s monthly “Trend of Business” survey reported that overall cabinet sales declined 26.2% in August compared to August of 2007. Sales of stock cabinets fell 21.5% while semi-custom cabinet sales dropped 29.6% and custom cabinet sales fell 31.2%, the KCMA reported. Year-to-date sales through the first eight months of 2008 were down 17.2% compared to the January-August period of 2007, the KCMA added.