Housing Stats Marginally Better Recent Numbers Provide Glimmer of Optimism
Recently released housing statistics were marginally better than previous numbers, although predicting a conclusive trend toward a reversal in the market would be premature.
Existing-home sales increased 5.1 percent in February, reversing losses in January. Despite the February increase in existing-home sales, activity remains relatively soft, reflecting additional layoffs and buyers waiting for housing provisions in the economic stimulus package to take effect, according to the National Association of Realtors.
At the same time, a new survey indicates that 23 percent of adults plan to purchase a home in the next five years, and more than half of them (53.5 percent) are first-time home buyers, according to Move, Inc., operator of Realtor.com.
Meanwhile, sales of new single family homes rose for the first time in seven months in February, according to the Commerce Department. The report showed a 4.7 percent gain in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000 units, along with upwardly revised figures for each of the previous three months.
In another development, U.S. home prices rose 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from December to January, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index.
However, December’s previously reported 0.1 percent increase was revised to a 0.2 percent decline. For the 12 months ending in January, U.S. prices fell 6.3 percent. The U.S. index is 9.6 percent below its April 2007 peak, according to FHFA.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said first-time buyers accounted for half of all home sales last month, with activity concentrated in lower price ranges. “Because entry level buyers are shopping for bargains, distressed sales accounted for 40 to 45 percent of transactions in February,” he said. “Our analysis shows that distressed homes typically are selling for 20 percent less than the normal market price, and this naturally is drawing down the overall median price.”
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $165,400 in February, down 15.5 percent from a year ago when the median was $195,800 and conditions were close to normal; the median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.13 percent in February from a record low 5.05 percent in January; the rate was 5.92 percent in February 2008. Last month’s average mortgage rate was the second lowest since data collection began in 1971.
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