Signs continue to point to a modest, fragile recovery for housing in 2010, with sharp differences in local markets and overall growth thwarted by a continued sluggish job market. Among the statistics and forecasts released by government agencies, research firms and industry-related trade associations in recent weeks were the following:

EXISTING-HOME SALES
It will be at least early spring before notable gains in sales activity are posted for existing homes, as buyers respond to the recently extended and expanded tax credit, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said last month. According to Lawrence Yun, the fact that pending home sales are comfortably above year-ago levels indicates the market has gained sufficient momentum on its own. “We expect another surge in the spring as more home buyers take advantage of affordable housing conditions before the tax credit expires April 30,” Yun said. The Washington, DC-based NAR is projecting that an additional 900,000 first-time buyers will qualify for the extended tax credit, in addition to about 2 million buyers who have already purchased. About 1.5 million repeat buyers also are expected to benefit from the credit, the NAR said.

RESIDENTIAL REMODELING
Homeowner improvement spending is likely to reach a cyclical bottom this quarter and steadily increase through 2010, according to the latest “Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA),” released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. “It appears we may be near the bottom of the current remodeling cycle,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “With signs of stabilization in the national economy, homeowners are once again planning home improvement projects.” Remodeling industry fundamentals are generally beginning to turn positive, said Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program. “Sales of existing homes are on the rise and home price declines are moderating in most markets across the country,” Baker said. “Financing costs are also favorable, although credit availability remains tight for many households.”

NEW-HOME SALES
The road to a housing recovery, as expected, “is proving to be a very bumpy ride,” according to the National Association of Home Builders, whose latest figures show a decline in new-home sales. The Washington, DC-
based NAHB, while pointing to “extremely favorable” purchasing conditions, said that “the sobering realities of a weak economy and job market” continue to impact prospects’ decision to purchase new homes (see related story below right).